Bob Hayes Online

Conventional and even unconventional wisdom would say “no”.

But if the Democrats pick Hillary, I think many black voters are likely to be disappointed in the party. There is one way that the party can, I think, actually capture a substantial share of the black vote. It would be a long-shot, a shot in the dark - but in the current electoral climate, I think a miraculous turn of a few percentage points in the final number is the only hope the Republicans have to eke out an electoral victory.

One black Republican analyst makes a cogent point: previous outreach efforts to black Republicans - and those black voters who might be persuaded to vote Republican - have stalled for lack of significant financial commitment. This is absurd, really; the thing that the underprivileged areas of the black community need most is opportunity, and that is the commodity that the GOP, its economic rhetoric, and its policies are most poised to deliver on. The capitalists among the GOP, myself among them, should announce (and keep) a commitment to producing opportunities for black Americans in need. The natural constituency of the GOP is rich people; let’s buck a demographic trend and make some new rich people.

But that strategy, while potentially fruitful, is long-term. We also need an immediate and obvious symbol of opportunity for black Americans, and the only symbol of significant stature is the vice-presidency. In terms of practical politics, the Democrats wouldn’t give a black man the opportunity (unless they do, of course, in which case all bets are off) - but Republicans will. The party should name a qualified black conservative - possibly even a conservative Democrat of the Lieberman variety, if one is to be found - as the vice-presidential nominee. The existing crop of candidates are all fairly damaged; a new face would strengthen the ticket and spur fresh interest and energy on the GOP side.

It would take a near-miracle. But if the Republicans made the commitment, it’s just possible we could pull it off.

I’ll update this if tonight’s returns change the facts on the ground from what I’m guessing.

Did you hear about Ron Paul and John Edwards? They’ve decided to form a third party and run together. The slogan is “Two candidates…Four first names!”

This is, of course, a filthy lie. Please feel free to add your own vicious rumors in the comments.

Well, it wasn’t true the first time, but I kind of suspect it might be true the second time. Bill was a pragmatist; Hillary is an ideologue. She’s singing a free-market tune to preserve her electoral viability, and I doubt that she’d consciously screw things up - it’s just that she’ll not understand why a particular policy will lead to doom, and will dismiss the people telling her otherwise as being right-wing fools.